Solving a Paradox of Evidential Equivalence

Mind 130 (520):1159–82 (2021)
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Abstract

David Builes presents a paradox concerning how confident you should be that any given member of an infinite collection of fair coins landed heads, conditional on the information that they were all flipped and only finitely many of them landed heads. We argue that if you should have any conditional credence at all, it should be 1/2.

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Author Profiles

Yoaav Isaacs
Baylor University
Cian Dorr
New York University
John Hawthorne
Australian Catholic University

Citations of this work

Tossing Morgenbesser’s Coin.Zachary Goodsell - 2022 - Analysis 82 (2):214-221.

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References found in this work

Humean Supervenience Debugged.David Lewis - 1994 - Mind 103 (412):473--490.
A nonpragmatic vindication of probabilism.James M. Joyce - 1998 - Philosophy of Science 65 (4):575-603.
Logik der Forschung.Karl R. Popper (ed.) - 1935 - Wien: J. Springer.
What conditional probability could not be.Alan Hájek - 2003 - Synthese 137 (3):273--323.

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