Abstract

Taiwan held its first direct presidential election in 1996, and since then, it has undergone three peaceful transfers of power, in 2000, 2008, and 2016. The country is now preparing for the next round of national elections in January 2024, when the Taiwanese people will choose a successor to President Tsai Ing-wen. Questions about cultivating friendlier ties with China or strengthening Taiwan’s own identity and sovereignty have dominated past elections. With geopolitical tensions on the rise, this electoral contest could mark a turning point for the island. Three candidates are running for the presidency (one of them set to become the Vice-Presidential candidate for the opposition camp, as of November 18): two from mainstream parties, one from a relatively new third political force. Each of the candidates brings a different approach to cross-Strait issues, the front-page subject in these elections. While Tsai’s party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and the Kuomintang (KMT) are seeking to consolidate support from their own political bases, the third party on the scene, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), is focusing on youth, with several polls showing the TPP candidate as the front-runner among voters aged 20 to 40.The winning party will determine the trajectory of future relations between China, Taiwan, and the United States. This paper first presents an overview of Taiwan’s electoral system and then summarizes the candidates’ positions in the polls. Then, the paper introduces each party and its candidate, sketches the ideological positions that the parties and candidates represent, and analyzes the roles played by China and the United States in the elections.